3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,350 sqft ·
Built 1991
· Manufactured
· Active
· 75 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,362/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$656
Tax + insurance
−$208
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$496
Net cashflow
$1,002/mo
Annual
$12,024/yr
Cap rate
15.91%
Cash-on-cash
34.35%
DSCR
2.53
1% rule
1.89%
Cash to close
$35,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#11 in CO, #1,750 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
Poudre School District R-1 (urban): math 45% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #10 of 86 in CO (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Bauder Elementary School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #357 of 966 statewide, top 40%, 495 students, 48% FRL); Poudre High School (math 36% / reading 59%, grade D, #131 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 1,663 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 24% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,786 units permitted in Larimer County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
Larimer County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $48k; list at $125k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 2.6% in Fort Collins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,362/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 3630% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-JR1K4DA2BEQ722
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29