39665 Bernard Rd

Malden, MO 63863

$145,000D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built 1980 · Other · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,212/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $102/mo
• Annual: $1,224/yr
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.02%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (16.4% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#572 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Malden R-I (town): math 19% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #294 of 324 in MO (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Malden Lower Elem. (math 23% / reading 35%, grade F, #842 of 1,115 statewide, top 76%, 454 students, 100% FRL); Malden High (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #478 of 521 statewide, top 92%, 425 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 63% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Dunklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dunklin County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.