4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,652 sqft ·
Built 1917
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 119 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,414/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,358
Tax + insurance
−$347
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$507
Net cashflow
$201/mo
Annual
$2,414/yr
Cap rate
7.53%
Cash-on-cash
4.43%
DSCR
1.20
1% rule
0.93%
Cash to close
$72,520
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $201 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (6.8% below list).
It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $236k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in LA, #1,383 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D.
Orleans Parish (urban): math 11% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #69 of 98 in LA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 83 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 710 units permitted in Orleans Parish in 2024 (244 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orleans County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
22 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 12882% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $207k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.4% in New Orleans — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,414/mo this rent would consume 149% of the median local household income ($19k/yr) (locally 795% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29