15 Sophia Ct

Westhampton, NY 11977

$2,800,000D

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,100 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 220 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $23,994/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,684
• Tax + insurance: −$4,667
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,039
• Net cashflow: $-395/mo
• Annual: $-4,741/yr
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.60%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $784,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/5.0-bath land listed at $2.80M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-395 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.74M (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.40M (14.3% below list).
• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.46M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.40M (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $266k of equity ($19k loan paydown + $247k appreciation (8.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#969 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Westhampton Beach Union Free School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #81 of 590 in NY (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Westhampton Beach Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #525 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 356 students, 43% FRL); Westhampton Middle School (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B+, #136 of 729 statewide, top 20%, 434 students, 26% FRL); Westhampton Beach Senior High School (math 90% / reading 96%, grade A+, #147 of 1,100 statewide, top 14%, 964 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $675k; list at $2.80M implies a 315% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$427k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 9.0% in Westhampton — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $23,994/mo this rent would consume 190% of the median local household income ($151k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.