31420 Barefoot Cir

Long Neck, DE 19951

$515,000D-

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,696 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,738/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax + insurance: −$301
• HOA: −$200
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $-1,038/mo
• Annual: $-12,460/yr
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.64%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.53%
• Cash to close: $144,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $515k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (35.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (46.8% below list).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($469k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $274k (46.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#30 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Cape Henlopen School District (town): math 42% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #5 of 26 in DE (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 47% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.