203 Ash Dr

Abbeville, AL 36310

$179,900C

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,030 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Pending · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,561/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $177/mo
• Annual: $2,121/yr
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.21%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (13.2% below list).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $156k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#180 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, schools F.
• Henry County (rural): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #55 of 129 in AL (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 71 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $180k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.