6955 San Felipe Rd Rd SE

Ventura, NM 88030

$85,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 236 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,283/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $426/mo
• Annual: $5,116/yr
• Cap rate: 12.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.50%
• DSCR: 1.96
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#271 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Deming Public Schools (town): math 18% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #63 of 95 in NM (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 97% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 375 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Luna County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Luna County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen cabinets — severely worn and outdated
• Major: bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Major: kitchen countertops — worn and in need of replacement
• Minor: HVAC system — no visible issues