3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,600 sqft ·
Built 1974
· Townhouse
· Under Contract
· 6 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,000/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,154
Tax + insurance
−$217
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$420
Net cashflow
$209/mo
Annual
$2,512/yr
Cap rate
7.43%
Cash-on-cash
4.08%
DSCR
1.18
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$61,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $220k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (9.1% below list).
Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $200k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#236 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
Chesapeake City Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #31 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Southwestern Elementary (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 544 students, 91% FRL); Western Branch High (math 71% / reading 84%, grade A-, #83 of 319 statewide, top 28%, 2,121 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 28% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 231 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 597 units permitted in Chesapeake city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Chesapeake County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $38k; list at $220k implies a 487% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.6% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.7% in Chesapeake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-JT315MECJZXRGE
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29