29307 Summit Rdg

Fair Oaks Ranch, TX 78015

$425,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,329 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 107 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,867/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$546
• HOA: −$94
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $-604/mo
• Annual: $-7,247/yr
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.09%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-604 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (25.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (32.6% below list).
• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $287k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#603 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Boerne ISD (town): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #42 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fair Oaks Ranch El (math 59% / reading 66%, grade B, #311 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 825 students, 12% FRL); Boerne Middle South (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 911 students, 18% FRL); Boerne - Samuel V Champion H S (math 59% / reading 83%, grade B+, #114 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,014 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 1.0% in Fair Oaks Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.