77 Butcher Knife Rd

Wheelwright, KY 41862

$45,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $999/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $412/mo
• Annual: $4,945/yr
• Cap rate: 19.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.58%
• DSCR: 3.03
• 1% rule: 2.22%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $412 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($999 rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#447 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Knott County (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #109 of 165 in KY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hindman Elementary School (math 23% / reading 40%, grade F, #376 of 676 statewide, top 56%, 430 students, 74% FRL); Knott County Central High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 552 students, 68% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP.
• Knott County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $45k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.