48 Nidzyn Ave

Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11960

$1,275,000A

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,040 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Pending · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $20,629/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,686
• Tax + insurance: −$1,122
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,332
• Net cashflow: $8,489/mo
• Annual: $101,869/yr
• Cap rate: 14.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.53%
• DSCR: 2.27
• 1% rule: 1.62%
• Cash to close: $357,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.27M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($102k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($21k rent vs $1.27M).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.20M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.20M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $108k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $100k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 755 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Remsenburg-Speonk Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 122 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 10% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $357k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$173k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 6.4% in Remsenburg-Speonk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.