430 23rd Ave

Bellwood, IL 60104

$100,440B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · Built 1947 · SingleFamily · Pending · 152 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,941/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$527
• Tax + insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $839/mo
• Annual: $10,071/yr
• Cap rate: 16.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.81%
• DSCR: 2.59
• 1% rule: 1.93%
• Cash to close: $28,123

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $839 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $694 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#155 in IL, #2,847 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Proviso Twp Hsd 209 (suburban): math 12% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #507 of 620 in IL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $100k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 5.3% in Bellwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.