39737 Road 274 #14

Bass Lake, CA 93604

$180,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Active · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,697/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$368
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $29/mo
• Annual: $342/yr
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.29%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($342/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (5.7% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $170k (5.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#975 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A-, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Oakhurst Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #917 of 1,571 statewide, top 60%, 352 students, 64% FRL); Oak Creek Intermediate (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #183 of 498 statewide, top 38%, 204 students, 68% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 8 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $180k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 0.4% in Bass Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.