3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
950 sqft ·
Built 1973
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 79 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,588/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$886
Tax + insurance
−$228
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$333
Net cashflow
$140/mo
Annual
$1,679/yr
Cap rate
7.29%
Cash-on-cash
3.55%
DSCR
1.16
1% rule
0.94%
Cash to close
$47,320
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (6.1% below list).
It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $159k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#82 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Cold Water Elem. (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #982 of 1,115 statewide, top 89%, 384 students, 68% FRL); North Middle (math 16% / reading 28%, grade F, #332 of 391 statewide, top 86%, 674 students, 55% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
8 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-JWK4CR73XGA3SZ
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29