15015 Pink Quill

San Antonio, TX 78221

$203,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,023 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,763/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,065
• Tax + insurance: −$464
• HOA: −$15
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-150/mo
• Annual: $-1,805/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $56,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $203k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (10.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (13.2% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Julian C Gallardo El (math 13% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,805 of 4,322 statewide, top 89%, 544 students, 87% FRL); Julius L Matthey Middle (math 17% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 604 students, 92% FRL); Southside H S (math 18% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,685 students, 85% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-7.2%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 3→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?