2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
716 sqft ·
Built 1950
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 48 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,041/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$184
Tax + insurance
−$49
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$219
Net cashflow
$590/mo
Annual
$7,083/yr
Cap rate
26.53%
Cash-on-cash
72.27%
DSCR
4.22
1% rule
2.98%
Cash to close
$9,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $590 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
Jackson (rural): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #39 of 73 in FL (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 163 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jackson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 26.5% vs local median 3.4% in Marianna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-JY0JQW905MASW3
· Data 5 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29