1456 Aber Ave

Iowa City, IA 52246

$204,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Built 1986 · Condo · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,219/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$343
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-455/mo
• Annual: $-5,454/yr
• Cap rate: 3.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.51%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $57,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-455 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (39.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (40.5% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (40.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#13 in IA, #450 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Iowa City Community School District (urban): math 65% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #174 of 289 in IA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ernest Horn Elementary School (math 59% / reading 58%, grade B-, #432 of 616 statewide, top 71%, 442 students, 58% FRL); Northwest Junior High School (math 64% / reading 71%, grade A-, #133 of 246 statewide, top 56%, 730 students, 43% FRL); West Senior High School (math 71% / reading 77%, grade B+, #103 of 336 statewide, top 32%, 1,503 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 208 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 714 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (158 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.7% in Iowa City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.