3133 Ventura Ln

Estelle, LA 70072

$215,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,446 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,927/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$281
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $114/mo
• Annual: $1,372/yr
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.60%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (10.4% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $193k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#183 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson Parish (suburban): math 24% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #44 of 98 in LA (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Estelle School (math 10% / reading 18%, grade F, #534 of 646 statewide, top 83%, 709 students, 73% FRL); Stella Worley Middle School (math 7% / reading 19%, grade F, #189 of 218 statewide, top 87%, 470 students, 80% FRL); L.W. Higgins High School (math 14% / reading 25%, grade F, #186 of 265 statewide, top 73%, 996 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 29% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson Parish average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 299 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 518 units permitted in Jefferson Parish in 2024 (43 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 9 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $215k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 5.6% in Estelle — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.