3988 Us Highway 209

Stone Ridge, NY 12484

$379,900F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,459 sqft · Built 1939 · MultiFamily · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,055/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax + insurance: −$666
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-1,035/mo
• Annual: $-12,420/yr
• Cap rate: 3.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.68%
• DSCR: 0.48
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $106,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath multifamily listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (48.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (45.9% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (48.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,034 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, housing A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rondout Valley Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #447 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 1.8% in Stone Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.