1020 Rosebud Dr

Azle, TX 76020

$210,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,699/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$476
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-235/mo
• Annual: $-2,816/yr
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.79%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (19.1% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#267 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Azle ISD (suburban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cross Timbers El (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 543 students, 59% FRL); Santo Forte J H (math 28% / reading 41%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 514 students, 55% FRL); Azle H S (math 41% / reading 50%, grade D-, #634 of 1,632 statewide, top 39%, 2,054 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 594 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.1% in Azle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.