5 Country View Rd

Millerton, NY 12546

$439,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,054 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,305/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax + insurance: −$659
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-1,141/mo
• Annual: $-13,690/yr
• Cap rate: 3.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.14%
• DSCR: 0.50
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $122,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $439k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (45.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (47.5% below list).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($413k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (47.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#594 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Northeast Central School District (rural): math 47% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #592 of 755 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Webutuck Elementary School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 221 students, 56% FRL); Eugene Brooks Intermediate School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #511 of 729 statewide, top 71%, 226 students, 0% FRL); Webutuck High School (math 95%, 195 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $330k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.