2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
684 sqft ·
Built 1967
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 103 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,511/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$157
Tax + insurance
−$89
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$527
Net cashflow
$1,738/mo
Annual
$20,853/yr
Cap rate
78.46%
Cash-on-cash
257.74%
DSCR
12.47
1% rule
8.37%
Cash to close
$8,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $30k).
It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $27k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#530 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, schools A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
El Dorado Union High (suburban): math 44% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #89 of 517 in CA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 636 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 78.5% vs local median 2.2% in El Dorado Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-K1ZGTD51F8CC5B
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29