26 Park Ter

Cranford, NJ 07016-3440

$449,900F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · — sqft · Built 1947 · Townhouse · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,987/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax + insurance: −$729
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$627
• Net cashflow: $-729/mo
• Annual: $-8,749/yr
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.94%
• DSCR: 0.69
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $125,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-729 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (28.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (33.6% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $299k (33.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cranford Public School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #87 of 472 in NJ (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,749 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (1,421 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Union County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $450k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.