4 Blue Heron Ct

Bowleys Quarters, MD 21220

$272,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,770 sqft · Built 2004 · Townhouse · Active · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,446/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,426
• Tax + insurance: −$391
• HOA: −$14
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $101/mo
• Annual: $1,209/yr
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.59%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $76,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $272k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (10.1% below list).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $245k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#233 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Seneca Elementary (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #614 of 860 statewide, top 75%, 368 students, 62% FRL); Middle River Middle (math 5% / reading 32%, grade F, #159 of 225 statewide, top 73%, 978 students, 62% FRL); Kenwood High (math 10% / reading 43%, grade F, #161 of 222 statewide, top 72%, 1,908 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 39% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 253 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $189k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Bowleys Quarters — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.