14 Mariner Green Dr

Corte Madera, CA 94925

$947,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · Built 1966 · Condo · Pending · 217 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,927/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,966
• Tax + insurance: −$1,490
• HOA: −$984
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,245
• Net cashflow: $-2,758/mo
• Annual: $-33,096/yr
• Cap rate: 2.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.48%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $265,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $947k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $460k (51.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $593k (37.4% below list).
• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($833k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $460k (51.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $73k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $67k appreciation (7.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#26 in CA, #984 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Tamalpais Union High (suburban): math 62% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #42 of 517 in CA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $480k; list at $947k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$117k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 1.9% in Corte Madera — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($233k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?