9376 Maple Ridge Dr

Saraland, AL 36571

$219,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,328 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Active · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,460/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $-134/mo
• Annual: $-1,607/yr
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.62%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (33.3% below list).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#72 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Saraland City (suburban): math 53% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #6 of 129 in AL (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: North Mobile County Middle School (math 6% / reading 38%, grade F, #442 of 627 statewide, top 72%, 452 students, 70% FRL); Saraland Middle Schooladams Campus (math 44% / reading 71%, grade B, #13 of 257 statewide, top 5%, 759 students, 48% FRL); Citronelle High School (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #261 of 305 statewide, top 87%, 719 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 43% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-33 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Saraland City average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.9% in Saraland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.