3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,067 sqft ·
Built 1985
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 111 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,419/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$545
Tax + insurance
−$96
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$298
Net cashflow
$480/mo
Annual
$5,760/yr
Cap rate
11.83%
Cash-on-cash
19.78%
DSCR
1.88
1% rule
1.36%
Cash to close
$29,120
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $104k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $104k).
It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $95k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $719 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#252 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Copiah County School District (rural): math 27% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #76 of 130 in MS (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Crystal Springs Elementary (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #155 of 375 statewide, top 44%, 397 students, 100% FRL); Crystal Springs Middle School (math 16% / reading 21%, grade F, #120 of 179 statewide, top 67%, 480 students, 100% FRL); Crystal Springs High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #151 of 197 statewide, top 77%, 451 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 73% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Copiah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Copiah County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 5.0% in Crystal Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-K3HGT0BBVZJXV5
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29