8206 Annabella's Ln

Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32407

$220,000D+

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 2006 · Townhouse · Active · 113 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,924/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$713
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-347/mo
• Annual: $-4,162/yr
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.55%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-347 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (27.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (12.5% below list).
• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 705 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 12 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.