231 W Bolz Rd

Phoenix, OR 97535

$400,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,224 sqft · Built 1979 · MultiFamily · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,407/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$421
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$715
• Net cashflow: $173/mo
• Annual: $2,077/yr
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.85%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $112,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive. Per door: $87/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (14.8% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $341k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#38 in OR, #884 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Phoenix-Talent SD 4 (suburban): math 14% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #58 of 58 in OR (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Phoenix Elementary School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #392 of 412 statewide, top 96%, 300 students, 87% FRL); Talent Middle School (math 10% / reading 33%, grade F, #122 of 128 statewide, top 95%, 473 students, 79% FRL); Phoenix High School (math 24% / reading 70%, grade D-, #56 of 143 statewide, top 41%, 700 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $400k implies a 456% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.0% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.