4 bd · 7.0 ba ·
5,579 sqft ·
Built 1940
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 68 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$16,099/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$9,833
Tax + insurance
−$1,432
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$3,381
Net cashflow
$1,453/mo
Annual
$17,440/yr
Cap rate
7.22%
Cash-on-cash
3.32%
DSCR
1.15
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$525,000
Investor read
This is a 4×2bd/1ba + 2×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $1.88M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive. Per door: $242/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.61M (14.1% below list).
It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.76M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1.61M (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $56k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#161 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
Marblehead (suburban): math 58% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 302 in MA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+19.0%/yr); 50 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,032 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (590 in 5+ unit buildings).
Essex County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $525k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 1.7% in Marblehead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $16,099/mo this rent would consume 108% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) (locally 333% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 5 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29