1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
406 sqft ·
Built 1987
· Manufactured
· Active
· 119 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,313/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$551
Tax + insurance
−$581
HOA
−$287
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$276
Net cashflow
$-381/mo
Annual
$-4,577/yr
Cap rate
6.81%
Cash-on-cash
1.84%
DSCR
1.08
1% rule
1.25%
Cash to close
$29,400
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $105k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-381 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $38k (64.2% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $38k (64.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Heights Elementary School (math 74% / reading 67%, grade A-, #333 of 2,144 statewide, top 16%, 1,109 students, 38% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 22% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 675 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $67k; list at $105k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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