3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,685 sqft ·
Built 2024
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 159 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,214/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,568
Tax + insurance
−$621
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$465
Net cashflow
$-441/mo
Annual
$-5,287/yr
Cap rate
4.52%
Cash-on-cash
-6.32%
DSCR
0.72
1% rule
0.74%
Cash to close
$83,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-441 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (26.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (26.0% below list).
It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $221k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#750 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Glades (town): math 38% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #63 of 73 in FL (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Moore Haven Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,080 of 2,144 statewide, top 97%, 375 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Glades average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: 950 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 65 units permitted in Glades County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Glades County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $220k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $2,214/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 498% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-K4RTBB34AKBMZN
· Data 7 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29