13 Jay St St

Johnson City, NY 13790

$149,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,274 sqft · Built 1939 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,594/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$404
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $74/mo
• Annual: $889/yr
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.13%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($889/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#238 in NY, #3,739 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Johnson City Central School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Johnson City Elementary/Primary School (496 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.5%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 340 units permitted in Broome County in 2024 (269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Broome County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.