4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,080 sqft ·
Built 1989
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 38 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,484/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,045
Tax + insurance
−$464
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$942
Net cashflow
$1,034/mo
Annual
$12,410/yr
Cap rate
9.48%
Cash-on-cash
11.37%
DSCR
1.51
1% rule
1.15%
Cash to close
$109,172
Investor read
This is a 2 × 2.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $390k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $517/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $390k).
It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $378k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 84/100 on livability (#2 in RI, #794 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F.
Providence (urban): math 8% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #34 of 39 in RI (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 776 units permitted in Providence County in 2024 (229 in 5+ unit buildings).
Providence County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.1% in Providence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,484/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1561% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-K5MZXGBFKG3YT2
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29