681 Smithville Rd

Cullen, LA 71071

$92,500B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Built 2011 · SingleFamily · Active · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,237/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$485
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $342/mo
• Annual: $4,102/yr
• Cap rate: 10.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.84%
• DSCR: 1.70
• 1% rule: 1.34%
• Cash to close: $25,900

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $92k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($640 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#386 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Webster Parish (town): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #67 of 98 in LA (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 36 units permitted in Webster Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Webster County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 48% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.