1 bd · 1.5 ba ·
860 sqft ·
Built 1981
· Condo
· Active
· 138 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,215/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,568
Tax + insurance
−$611
HOA
−$1,090
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$675
Net cashflow
$-729/mo
Annual
$-8,753/yr
Cap rate
3.63%
Cash-on-cash
-9.50%
DSCR
0.58
1% rule
1.08%
Cash to close
$83,720
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $299k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-729 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (43.1% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $299k).
It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $170k (43.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#415 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Beacon Cove Intermediate School (math 84% / reading 86%, grade A+, #35 of 2,144 statewide, top 2%, 641 students, 19% FRL); Jupiter Middle School (math 62% / reading 63%, grade B+, #116 of 571 statewide, top 21%, 1,384 students, 38% FRL); Jupiter High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 3,087 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 52% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 69% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 34% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.3%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 13491% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.7% in Jupiter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
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