14505 Baldwin Ln

Carmel, IN 46032

$443,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,632 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Pending · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,038/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,323
• Tax + insurance: −$548
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$638
• Net cashflow: $-504/mo
• Annual: $-6,044/yr
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.87%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $124,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $443k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-504 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (31.4% below list).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($403k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $304k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#7 in IN, #726 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: commute F.
• Carmel Clay Schools (urban): math 68% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #1 of 301 in IN (top 0%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 340 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 4,661 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (1,528 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hamilton County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.7% in Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.