5 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,949 sqft ·
Built 1924
· Other
· Active
· 157 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,500/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$314
Tax + insurance
−$604
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$315
Net cashflow
$266/mo
Annual
$3,197/yr
Cap rate
20.85%
Cash-on-cash
52.01%
DSCR
3.31
1% rule
2.50%
Cash to close
$16,772
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $60k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $2k of equity ($414 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#887 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, commute F, employment F.
Shamokin Area SD (town): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #450 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $15k; list at $60k implies a 292% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 20.9% vs local median 11.4% in Shamokin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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