10609 Shadrach Ct

Glen Allen, VA 23059

$399,950D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,734 sqft · Built 2000 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,505/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax + insurance: −$404
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-572/mo
• Annual: $-6,862/yr
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.13%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $111,986

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-572 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (25.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (37.4% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $251k (37.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#108 in VA, #3,369 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greenwood Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,108 statewide, top 92%, 600 students, 50% FRL); Hungary Creek Middle (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #268 of 342 statewide, top 80%, 829 students, 44% FRL); Glen Allen High (math 62% / reading 91%, grade A-, #99 of 319 statewide, top 31%, 2,006 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 331 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.5% in Glen Allen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.