550 Bristow Creek Trl

Egypt, AL 35952

$199,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Active · 251 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,166/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$400
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $-527/mo
• Annual: $-6,320/yr
• Cap rate: 3.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.87%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-527 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (38.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (41.7% below list).
• It's been on market 251 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (41.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#439 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Etowah County (suburban): math 21% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #36 of 129 in AL (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West End Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #213 of 627 statewide, top 37%, 390 students, 78% FRL); West End High School (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #216 of 305 statewide, top 72%, 370 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 41% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Etowah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Etowah County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 251 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.