15349 Coyote Dr

Urbandale, IA 50111

$206,990C-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,418 sqft · Built 2025 · Townhouse · Active · 323 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,010/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,085
• Tax + insurance: −$345
• HOA: −$195
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-38/mo
• Annual: $-453/yr
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $57,957

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $207k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-453/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (2.9% below list).
• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#4 in IA, #69 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Waukee Community School District (suburban): math 80% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #14 of 289 in IA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Hills Elementary School (math 91% / reading 81%, grade A+, #26 of 616 statewide, top 4%, 625 students, 9% FRL); Waukee Middle School (math 83% / reading 81%, grade A+, #22 of 246 statewide, top 12%, 1,069 students, 12% FRL); Waukee High School (math 74% / reading 82%, grade A-, #53 of 336 statewide, top 16%, 1,268 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 529 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,503 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (630 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at +74% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.5% in Urbandale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.