3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,207 sqft ·
Built 1965
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 19 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,103/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,206
Tax + insurance
−$400
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$442
Net cashflow
$55/mo
Annual
$665/yr
Cap rate
6.58%
Cash-on-cash
1.03%
DSCR
1.05
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$64,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($665/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (8.5% below list).
It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $210k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#105 in TX, #3,500 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Birdville ISD (suburban): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Watauga El (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,221 of 4,322 statewide, top 75%, 715 students, 80% FRL); Watauga Middle (math 32% / reading 36%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 608 students, 71% FRL); Haltom H S (math 37% / reading 48%, grade F, #721 of 1,632 statewide, top 45%, 2,785 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 132 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.6% in Watauga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-K7ZN4857YRB4Q4
· Data 4 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29