3534 Elm Point Rd

St. Charles, MO 63301

$117,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,039/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$614
• Tax + insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $783/mo
• Annual: $9,396/yr
• Cap rate: 14.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.68%
• DSCR: 2.28
• 1% rule: 1.74%
• Cash to close: $32,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $117k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $783 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $117k).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $809 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Charles R-VI (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #51 of 324 in MO (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $79k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 3.3% in St. Charles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.