409 2nd Ave

Greenwood, MS 38930

$18,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 904 sqft · Built 1960 · Other · Pending · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $450/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$94
• Tax + insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$94
• Net cashflow: $204/mo
• Annual: $2,443/yr
• Cap rate: 19.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.48%
• DSCR: 3.16
• 1% rule: 2.50%
• Cash to close: $5,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $18k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($450 rent vs $18k).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $17k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $124 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $540 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#31 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9 units permitted in Leflore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Leflore County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.9% vs local median 4.7% in Greenwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.