4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,856 sqft ·
Built 2016
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 46 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,283/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,374
Tax + insurance
−$470
HOA
−$9
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$480
Net cashflow
$-49/mo
Annual
$-588/yr
Cap rate
6.07%
Cash-on-cash
-0.80%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.87%
Cash to close
$73,360
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $262k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-588/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (3.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (12.8% below list).
It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $228k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Dinsmore Elementary School (math 61% / reading 47%, grade C, #936 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 595 students, 53% FRL); Highlands Middle School (math 31% / reading 21%, grade F, #506 of 571 statewide, top 89%, 697 students, 73% FRL); Jean Ribault High School (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #533 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,385 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 49% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 547 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $179k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-K8W0NNDNMG4W2D
· Data 7 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29