1414 Cedar Hill Rd

Lancaster, OH 43130

$199,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 177 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,748/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$244
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $88/mo
• Annual: $1,062/yr
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.90%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (12.6% below list).
• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#41 in OH, #423 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D.
• Lancaster City (town): math 38% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #504 of 656 in OH (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gorsuch West Elementary School (math 31% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,105 of 1,584 statewide, top 70%, 580 students, 73% FRL); General Sherman Junior High School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade D, #477 of 654 statewide, top 74%, 707 students, 56% FRL); Lancaster High School (math 35% / reading 65%, grade D+, #384 of 781 statewide, top 49%, 1,848 students, 53% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 475 units permitted in Fairfield County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fairfield County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $200k implies a 471% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.2% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.