400 Kelly Ln #1

Pikeville, TN 37367

$199,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 2013 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,466/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$332
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $573/mo
• Annual: $6,871/yr
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.33%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $573 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#296 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bledsoe County (rural): math 19% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #104 of 139 in TN (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pikeville Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 415 students, 0% FRL); Bledsoe County Middle School (math 17% / reading 20%, grade F, #209 of 333 statewide, top 63%, 378 students, 0% FRL); Bledsoe County High School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #215 of 332 statewide, top 67%, 483 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 69% district-wide (69 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP.
• Bledsoe County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.8% in Pikeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,466/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.