3128 Main St

Cottondale, FL 32431

$145,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,726 sqft · Built 1927 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,264/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $37/mo
• Annual: $443/yr
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.09%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($443/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (12.8% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#649 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, health & safety D.
• Jackson (rural): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #39 of 73 in FL (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $113k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.