1291 Forestbrook Ln

Wellford, SC 29303

$189,000D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,518 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,893/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$315
• HOA: −$120
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $69/mo
• Annual: $828/yr
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.57%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($828/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#59 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Spartanburg 06 (suburban): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #35 of 80 in SC (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fairforest Elementary (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #369 of 597 statewide, top 64%, 782 students, 82% FRL); Dorman High (math 46% / reading 78%, grade B-, #99 of 196 statewide, top 53%, 3,808 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 48% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 380 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,129 units permitted in Spartanburg County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Spartanburg County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.8% in Wellford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,893/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1218% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.