Tourmaline Plan

On Top of the World, FL 34474

$377,950F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,670 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,038/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,237
• Tax + insurance: −$711
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$638
• Net cashflow: $-548/mo
• Annual: $-6,579/yr
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.51%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $119,462

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $378k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-548 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $347k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (19.6% below list).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $304k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 299 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.9% in On Top of the World — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,038/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 1062% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.